{
 "benchmark": "hold-BTC = 1.000",
 "decisions": {
  "by_verdict": [
   {
    "approved": false,
    "horizon_d": 1,
    "mean_ratio_return_pct": -0.68,
    "n": 70
   },
   {
    "approved": true,
    "horizon_d": 1,
    "mean_ratio_return_pct": 0.16,
    "n": 10
   },
   {
    "approved": false,
    "horizon_d": 3,
    "mean_ratio_return_pct": 3.65,
    "n": 22
   },
   {
    "approved": true,
    "horizon_d": 3,
    "mean_ratio_return_pct": 2.73,
    "n": 10
   },
   {
    "approved": false,
    "horizon_d": 7,
    "mean_ratio_return_pct": 16.96,
    "n": 2
   },
   {
    "approved": true,
    "horizon_d": 7,
    "mean_ratio_return_pct": 17.96,
    "n": 8
   }
  ],
  "horizons_days": [
   1,
   3,
   7,
   30
  ],
  "note": "Every live proposal \u2014 approved or vetoed \u2014 scored against the asset/BTC ratio at fixed horizons. Too few rows to mean anything yet; shown anyway.",
  "scored_rows": 122
 },
 "generated_at": "2026-09-18T22:02:53+00:00",
 "kitsunebi": {
  "confirmed_in_bitcoin": 156,
  "entries": 160,
  "first_live_registration": "2026-09-04T00:43:11+00:00",
  "latest_block": 967483,
  "live_registered": 88,
  "pending": 4,
  "retro": 72
 },
 "live": {
  "as_of": "2026-09-18 21:25:19Z",
  "days": 17,
  "halt_thresholds_pct": {
   "half": 15,
   "halt": 25
  },
  "halted": false,
  "multiple_vs_btc": 1.0969,
  "note": "BTC book only (Kraken). Capital is never shown. The on-chain pot is a separate USDC ledger.",
  "since": "2026-09-02 20:55:00+00",
  "vs_high_water": 1.0,
  "worst_multiple_since_live": 0.9996
 },
 "pot": {
  "as_of": "2026-09-18 21:25:19Z",
  "multiple_vs_usdc": 1.0,
  "note": "Tokenised-equity pot on Solana, benchmarked in USDC, outside the BTC book."
 },
 "research": {
  "batches": 45,
  "first_run": "2026-09-01",
  "last_run": "2026-09-18",
  "note": "Every trial is pre-registered; the ledger is the denominator for the deflated Sharpe ratio.",
  "runs": 11701,
  "trials": 2184,
  "windows": [
   "post-ETF epoch, Jan 2024 to today: fit Jan 2024 to Aug 2025 (the only ranked window)",
   "holdout, the last 12 months (PASS/FAIL, never ranked)",
   "pre-ETF from 2020 and from 2015 as stress: can fail a line, never promote one"
  ]
 },
 "series": {
  "live": [
   [
    "2026-09-01",
    1.0
   ],
   [
    "2026-09-02",
    1.001
   ],
   [
    "2026-09-03",
    1.0157
   ],
   [
    "2026-09-04",
    1.0283
   ],
   [
    "2026-09-05",
    1.0322
   ],
   [
    "2026-09-06",
    1.065
   ],
   [
    "2026-09-07",
    1.0513
   ],
   [
    "2026-09-08",
    1.0568
   ],
   [
    "2026-09-09",
    1.062
   ],
   [
    "2026-09-10",
    1.0402
   ],
   [
    "2026-09-11",
    1.051
   ],
   [
    "2026-09-12",
    1.0447
   ],
   [
    "2026-09-13",
    1.0328
   ],
   [
    "2026-09-14",
    1.0475
   ],
   [
    "2026-09-15",
    1.0421
   ],
   [
    "2026-09-16",
    1.0762
   ],
   [
    "2026-09-17",
    1.0971
   ]
  ],
  "note": "One point per daily bar, valued at the bar close, live book and shadow books on the same marks. Multiples of hold-BTC.",
  "shadow": {
   "alt_basket_off": [
    [
     "2026-09-01",
     1.0
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-02",
     1.0
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-03",
     1.0
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-04",
     1.0
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-05",
     1.0
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-06",
     1.0
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-07",
     1.0
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-08",
     1.0
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-09",
     1.0
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-10",
     1.0
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-11",
     1.0
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-12",
     1.0
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-13",
     1.0
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-14",
     1.0
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-15",
     1.0
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-16",
     1.0
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-17",
     1.0
    ]
   ],
   "constant_mix_70_30": [
    [
     "2026-09-01",
     1.0
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-02",
     1.0013
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-03",
     1.0059
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-04",
     1.0131
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-05",
     1.0174
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-06",
     1.0369
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-07",
     1.0332
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-08",
     1.0372
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-09",
     1.0392
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-10",
     1.0234
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-11",
     1.0306
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-12",
     1.0267
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-13",
     1.0197
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-14",
     1.0256
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-15",
     1.0241
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-16",
     1.0432
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-17",
     1.058
    ]
   ],
   "gex_regime": [
    [
     "2026-09-01",
     1.0
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-02",
     1.0
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-03",
     1.0
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-04",
     1.0
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-05",
     1.0
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-06",
     1.0
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-07",
     1.0
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-08",
     1.0
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-09",
     1.0
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-10",
     1.0
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-11",
     1.0
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-12",
     1.0
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-13",
     1.0
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-14",
     1.0
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-15",
     1.0
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-16",
     1.0
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-17",
     1.0
    ]
   ],
   "hashdex_momentum": [
    [
     "2026-09-01",
     1.0
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-02",
     0.9943
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-03",
     0.9948
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-04",
     1.0038
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-05",
     1.0211
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-06",
     1.0311
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-07",
     1.0255
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-08",
     1.0313
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-09",
     1.0264
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-10",
     1.0236
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-11",
     1.0302
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-12",
     1.0319
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-13",
     1.022
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-14",
     1.0224
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-15",
     1.0219
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-16",
     1.03
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-17",
     1.0438
    ]
   ],
   "ichimoku_switch": [
    [
     "2026-09-01",
     1.0
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-02",
     1.0
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-03",
     1.0
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-04",
     1.0
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-05",
     1.0
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-06",
     1.0
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-07",
     1.0
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-08",
     1.0
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-09",
     1.0
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-10",
     1.0
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-11",
     1.0
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-12",
     1.0
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-13",
     1.0
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-14",
     1.0
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-15",
     1.0
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-16",
     0.9887
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-17",
     0.986
    ]
   ],
   "liq_reversal": [
    [
     "2026-09-01",
     1.0
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-02",
     0.9972
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-03",
     0.9485
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-04",
     0.9603
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-05",
     0.9585
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-06",
     0.9524
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-07",
     0.9674
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-08",
     0.9677
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-09",
     0.9641
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-10",
     0.986
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-11",
     0.9788
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-12",
     0.9775
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-13",
     0.9834
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-14",
     0.9659
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-15",
     0.9865
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-16",
     0.9792
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-17",
     0.9765
    ]
   ],
   "ma200_switch": [
    [
     "2026-09-01",
     1.0
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-02",
     1.0
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-03",
     1.0
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-04",
     1.0
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-05",
     1.0
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-06",
     1.0
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-07",
     1.0
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-08",
     1.0
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-09",
     1.0
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-10",
     1.0
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-11",
     1.0
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-12",
     1.0
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-13",
     1.0
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-14",
     1.0
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-15",
     1.0
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-16",
     1.0
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-17",
     1.0
    ]
   ],
   "maxpain_gap": [
    [
     "2026-09-01",
     1.0
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-02",
     0.9935
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-03",
     1.0088
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-04",
     1.0213
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-05",
     1.025
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-06",
     1.0574
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-07",
     1.0444
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-08",
     1.05
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-09",
     1.0552
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-10",
     1.0337
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-11",
     1.0448
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-12",
     1.0381
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-13",
     1.0264
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-14",
     1.0409
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-15",
     1.0356
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-16",
     1.0693
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-17",
     1.0899
    ]
   ],
   "no_blackout": [
    [
     "2026-09-01",
     1.0
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-02",
     0.9935
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-03",
     1.0088
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-04",
     1.0213
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-05",
     1.025
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-06",
     1.0574
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-07",
     1.0444
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-08",
     1.05
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-09",
     1.0552
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-10",
     1.0337
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-11",
     1.0448
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-12",
     1.0381
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-13",
     1.0264
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-14",
     1.0409
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-15",
     1.0356
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-16",
     1.0693
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-17",
     1.0899
    ]
   ],
   "old_exit": [
    [
     "2026-09-01",
     1.0
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-02",
     0.9935
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-03",
     1.0088
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-04",
     1.0213
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-05",
     1.025
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-06",
     1.0574
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-07",
     1.0444
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-08",
     1.05
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-09",
     1.0552
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-10",
     1.0337
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-11",
     1.0448
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-12",
     1.0381
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-13",
     1.0264
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-14",
     1.0409
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-15",
     1.0356
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-16",
     1.0693
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-17",
     1.0899
    ]
   ],
   "tranche_entries": [
    [
     "2026-09-01",
     1.0
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-02",
     0.9989
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-03",
     1.0036
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-04",
     1.0088
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-05",
     1.0107
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-06",
     1.044
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-07",
     1.0308
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-08",
     1.0364
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-09",
     1.0411
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-10",
     1.0196
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-11",
     1.0313
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-12",
     1.0248
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-13",
     1.0132
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-14",
     1.0276
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-15",
     1.0223
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-16",
     1.0557
    ],
    [
     "2026-09-17",
     1.076
    ]
   ]
  }
 },
 "shadow": {
  "as_of_bar": "2026-09-17",
  "books": [
   {
    "book": "maxpain_gap",
    "class": "B",
    "fee_drag_pct": 0.271,
    "max_drawdown_pct": 2.93,
    "multiple_vs_btc": 1.0899,
    "trades": 8,
    "vs_yardstick_pts": -0.72,
    "what": "The live system plus an options max-pain rule near expiry, pre-registered from a public claim."
   },
   {
    "book": "old_exit",
    "class": "B",
    "fee_drag_pct": 0.271,
    "max_drawdown_pct": 2.93,
    "multiple_vs_btc": 1.0899,
    "trades": 8,
    "vs_yardstick_pts": -0.72,
    "what": "The live system without the S80c exit fix: alt coins leave only on the daily-ratio trend flip."
   },
   {
    "book": "no_blackout",
    "class": "B",
    "fee_drag_pct": 0.271,
    "max_drawdown_pct": 2.93,
    "multiple_vs_btc": 1.0899,
    "trades": 8,
    "vs_yardstick_pts": -0.72,
    "what": "The live system without the event blackout."
   },
   {
    "book": "tranche_entries",
    "class": "B",
    "fee_drag_pct": 0.287,
    "max_drawdown_pct": 2.95,
    "multiple_vs_btc": 1.076,
    "trades": 10,
    "vs_yardstick_pts": -2.11,
    "what": "The live system, but new entries in daily tranches instead of at once."
   },
   {
    "book": "alt_basket_off",
    "class": "B",
    "fee_drag_pct": 0.0,
    "max_drawdown_pct": 0.0,
    "multiple_vs_btc": 1.0,
    "trades": 0,
    "vs_yardstick_pts": -9.71,
    "what": "The live system with no alt sleeve at all."
   },
   {
    "book": "constant_mix_70_30",
    "class": "A",
    "fee_drag_pct": 0.18,
    "max_drawdown_pct": 1.88,
    "multiple_vs_btc": 1.058,
    "trades": 4,
    "vs_yardstick_pts": 5.8,
    "what": "Independent rule. A fixed mix rebalanced inside a band; no signal at all."
   },
   {
    "book": "hashdex_momentum",
    "class": "A",
    "fee_drag_pct": 0.471,
    "max_drawdown_pct": 0.97,
    "multiple_vs_btc": 1.0438,
    "trades": 9,
    "vs_yardstick_pts": 4.38,
    "what": "A published mechanical benchmark: the Vinter/Kaiko Hashdex risk-parity-momentum index (top-12 by cap, momentum x equal-risk weights, 30% cap, monthly), with its own 30% BTC floor."
   },
   {
    "book": "ma200_switch",
    "class": "A",
    "fee_drag_pct": 0.0,
    "max_drawdown_pct": 0.0,
    "multiple_vs_btc": 1.0,
    "trades": 0,
    "vs_yardstick_pts": 0.0,
    "what": "Independent rule. Long BTC above the 200-day average, partly out below it."
   },
   {
    "book": "gex_regime",
    "class": "A",
    "fee_drag_pct": 0.0,
    "max_drawdown_pct": 0.0,
    "multiple_vs_btc": 1.0,
    "trades": 0,
    "vs_yardstick_pts": 0.0,
    "what": "Independent rule. Long or flat on the options dealers' gamma regime; decides hourly."
   },
   {
    "book": "ichimoku_switch",
    "class": "A",
    "fee_drag_pct": 0.398,
    "max_drawdown_pct": 1.4,
    "multiple_vs_btc": 0.986,
    "trades": 1,
    "vs_yardstick_pts": -1.4,
    "what": "Independent rule. Long or flat on a daily Ichimoku composite."
   },
   {
    "book": "liq_reversal",
    "class": "A",
    "fee_drag_pct": 5.131,
    "max_drawdown_pct": 5.15,
    "multiple_vs_btc": 0.9765,
    "trades": 14,
    "vs_yardstick_pts": -2.35,
    "what": "Independent rule. Buys after long-liquidation flushes, expecting the bounce; decides hourly."
   }
  ],
  "live_book_multiple": 1.0971,
  "method": "Paper books replayed every night through the live engine from go-live, on the data the live system had at each decision and at the exchange's real fee rate. Two kinds: independent rules judged against holding Bitcoin (1.000), and the live system with exactly one change judged against the live book. No book is promoted automatically; the owner reviews them.",
  "since": "2026-09-02"
 },
 "today": {
  "best_shadow_book": {
   "book": "maxpain_gap",
   "multiple_vs_btc": 1.0899
  },
  "latest_verdicts": [
   {
    "date": "2026-09-18",
    "id": "K0160",
    "what": "b34b verdict: baseline one bar later and 1 % lower also far below the control - FRAGILE; no rule change from b34"
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-09-18",
    "id": "K0159",
    "what": "b34 verdict: trial promotion baseline one bar before entry far below the control - pre-registered FILL, superseded by b34b"
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-09-17",
    "id": "K0153",
    "what": "probe2 verdict change 316921bb36ea: OPTION -> CLOSED"
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-09-17",
    "id": "K0152",
    "what": "probe2 verdict change 7d0b64ff163e: OPTION -> NOTHING (re-validation)"
   },
   {
    "date": "2026-09-17",
    "id": "K0151",
    "what": "b33 verdict: hedge cover EMA 21/34/44/72/89 all below the S95 control on fit+DD - NOTHING; 55 is the plateau top"
   }
  ],
  "max_drawdown_vs_btc_pct": 0.04,
  "trials_7d": 1692,
  "verdicts_7d": 12,
  "verdicts_total": 62
 },
 "units": "multiples of holding Bitcoin; counts; dates"
}