Shadow books
Paper books replayed every night through the live engine from go-live, on the data the live system had at each decision and at the exchange's real fee rate. Two kinds: independent rules judged against holding Bitcoin (1.000), and the live system with exactly one change judged against the live book. No book is promoted automatically; the owner reviews them. Since 2026-09-02; data to 2026-09-17.
Every book, day by day
live book1.000 hold-BTCno_blackoutold_exitmaxpain_gaptranche_entriesconstant_mix_70_30hashdex_momentumgex_regimema200_switchalt_basket_offichimoku_switchliq_reversal
Independent rules, against holding Bitcoin
| book | × hold-BTC | vs 1.000, pts | max DD % | trades | fees % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| constant_mix_70_30 Independent rule. A fixed mix rebalanced inside a band; no signal at all. | 1.058 | 5.80 | 1.88 | 4 | 0.180 |
| hashdex_momentum A published mechanical benchmark: the Vinter/Kaiko Hashdex risk-parity-momentum index (top-12 by cap, momentum x equal-risk weights, 30% cap, monthly), with its own 30% BTC floor. | 1.044 | 4.38 | 0.97 | 9 | 0.471 |
| ma200_switch Independent rule. Long BTC above the 200-day average, partly out below it. | 1.000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.000 |
| gex_regime Independent rule. Long or flat on the options dealers' gamma regime; decides hourly. | 1.000 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.000 |
| ichimoku_switch Independent rule. Long or flat on a daily Ichimoku composite. | 0.986 | -1.40 | 1.40 | 1 | 0.398 |
| liq_reversal Independent rule. Buys after long-liquidation flushes, expecting the bounce; decides hourly. | 0.977 | -2.35 | 5.15 | 14 | 5.131 |
The live system with one change, against the live book
The live book stands at 1.097.
| book | × hold-BTC | vs live book, pts | max DD % | trades | fees % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| maxpain_gap The live system plus an options max-pain rule near expiry, pre-registered from a public claim. | 1.090 | -0.72 | 2.93 | 8 | 0.271 |
| old_exit The live system without the S80c exit fix: alt coins leave only on the daily-ratio trend flip. | 1.090 | -0.72 | 2.93 | 8 | 0.271 |
| no_blackout The live system without the event blackout. | 1.090 | -0.72 | 2.93 | 8 | 0.271 |
| tranche_entries The live system, but new entries in daily tranches instead of at once. | 1.076 | -2.11 | 2.95 | 10 | 0.287 |
| alt_basket_off The live system with no alt sleeve at all. | 1.000 | -9.71 | 0.00 | 0 | 0.000 |